Home   Science      Methods    Theories    Skepticism   Intuition     Genes & Heredity  Variation               Inheritance           Evolution       The Fact of Evolution  Evidence for Evolution Speciation Speciation: Patterns  Speciation: Rates  Mechanisms    Fitness     Natural Selection  Other Causes    Modern Synthesis   Ecology       Energy       Interactions  Tradeoffs     References    About TVOL    Bibliography  Glossary       
Science: An Approach to Learning
Intuition
 

Beginning in the 1990's, the Northern Spotted Owl became the center of controversy when biologists called for listing these owls as an endangered species[#](US Fish and Wildlife Service 1990). The biologists claimed that the species was threatened because its habitatThe place and conditions in which an organism lives. (old growth forest) was being lost due to logging. They said that without this critical habitat - if the cutting of old growth forest continued unabated - the species was doomed.

Opponents of the listing were skeptical, and soon found a problem with the biologists’ argument when it was reported that a pair of owls had been found nesting atop a department store sign. (The veracity of this story is questionable, but we’ll assume it’s accurate). How, they asked, could biologists claim that the birds need old growth forest, when here was this pair happily nesting in a parking lot? Intuitively, it certainly makes sense to conclude that a species is found in an area because the habitat is suitable.

Before we accept what common sense tells us, we should also be skeptical of conclusions based on intuitionA quick and ready insight, akin to “common sense.”.

Habitats can differ in many ways, including the amount, kind and distribution of resources (such as food or nesting sites), competing species, or predators. Some habitats may be ideal, while others are less suitable, even though populations may be found in each. Differences in resources among habitats can lead to drastic differences in survival and reproductive success among individuals.

The only way to know if a habitat can sustain a species is to study the birth and death rates of individuals in the habitat[#](Van Horne 1983). If birth rates are not sufficient to replace individuals that die, then the population will go extinct unless other individuals move in from elsewhere[#](Pulliam 1988).

When suitable habitat is reduced or destroyed, many inhabitants and/or their offspring are displaced and must move elsewhere. And the remaining habitat will support fewer individuals, so offspring are less likely to find suitable habitat, forcing them to settle anywhere they can, perhaps even a store sign.

A thorough search to corroborate the story of the sign-nester failed, so we don’t know if the pair fledged any young. But the point is that despite our intuition, concluding that the story shows this species can survive without old growth forest is a potentially huge mistake.

 

Sagan, C. 1979. Can We Know the Universe?: Reflections on a Grain of Salt. Ch. 2 in Broca's Brain: Reflections on the Romance of Science, New York: Random House.

   
   Home   Science      Methods    Theories    Skepticism   Intuition     Genes & Heredity  Variation               Inheritance           Evolution       The Fact of Evolution  Evidence for Evolution Speciation Speciation: Patterns  Speciation: Rates  Mechanisms    Fitness     Natural Selection  Other Causes    Modern Synthesis   Ecology       Energy       Interactions  Tradeoffs     References    About TVOL    Bibliography  Glossary    
Copyright © 2007 Michael Kreuzer, Jr.